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Archive for September, 2008

Europe’s contrasting reactions to sub-prime crisis

Monday, September 29th, 2008

While the United States and Britain reel from one catastrophe to another in the storm of the sub-prime crisis, the eurozone has seemed remarkably detached, until recently anyway. For the Americans and the Brits the news is totally dominated by stories of collapsing banks, bail-outs, vast lines of credit insurance which turn out to be no insurance at all, and an American administration desperately seeking a safe path for the US economy over the quicksands of collapsing confidence.

I’m not saying that the Land of the Euro is immune from the impact of this crisis – it clearly is not. The turbulence over Fortis Bank, to name but one of the repercussions, deepens the black hole for the missing Belgian government.

But there does seem to be a difference. The US and UK economies are so much more dependent on their financial services sector than most of the countries of the eurozone. What’s more, the great bubble of house prices linked with high mortgage commitments brings this crisis straight to everyone’s front door in Britain and America.

Maybe the continental reaction is also different because the power centres of the eurozone are so widely dispersed. It’s not like London or New York/Washington where the various regulatory institutions are perceived to work closely together. The European Central Bank from its fortress in Frankfurt is responsible for providing liquidity for the banking system across 15 countries; the framework for EU financial services regulation across the EU is crafted and overseen by Brussels; and individual member states have their own particular responsibilities for applying the rules, such as the clamp-down on short selling.

It’s striking to see how different players are reacting to the crisis. In the UK there may be talk of international co-operation, but the British government makes no mention whatever of the European legal framework, although it is evident that most of the legislation governing the solvency of banks and other financial bodies and the activities of financial services firms derives from EU decisions.

As for continental reaction, note the contrast between President Sarkozy and Charlie McCreevy, Commissioner responsible for the financial services sector. The French President is determined to push for more regulation and reserves particular venom for ratings agencies.

The Commissioner, by contrast, is keeping a low profile. He doesn’t like interfering with markets and plays down the need for drastic action on the regulatory front. He has even said that (unregulated) hedge funds and private equity should not be “tarred with the same brush” as the regulated sector.

Nonetheless, McCreevy must be seen to act, and sure enough the Commission is expected to come forward this week with some new proposals tightening up banks’ capital requirements in relation to securitised debt, although according to reports he has been persuaded by the banking sector not to go too far. Rating agencies will also face registration requirements, though short of the controls which the French and Germans would like.

The German finance minister Peter Steinbrück believes that the US will cease to be the global financial superpower following the credit crisis. He blames Washington for its failure to introduce stricter regulation despite European demands and has told journalists that in ten years time “we will see 2008 as a fundamental rupture”.

Apparently the Minister was particularly stung by the actions of a state-owned bank, which earned the soubriquet of Deutschland’s Dümste Banker from Bild Zeitung after it transferred €350m to Lehman Brothers two hours before Lehmans folded. Steinbrück is pushing for much tougher regulatory measures than McCreevy envisages.

After the Enron and WorldCom crises the US introduced Sarbanes-Oxley, a complex set of rules and red tape which many now see as over-reaction. Policy-makers now face another challenge – of preventing the excesses which produced the credit meltdown from ever recurring.

The Commission’s proposals will be a first step for Europe, although getting even such modest measures through Council and Parliament will be tough, given the impending European elections in June 2009. Maybe, though, this will be the opportunity for the EU to take the initiative in establishing a worldwide framework of regulation which does not throw Baby out with the Bathwater.

Untrammelled power for Commission in telecoms regulation?

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Nobody knows where the IRG begins and the ERG ends, Commissioner Reding complains to the European Parliament.

You can see just how irritated the Commission is that the Independent (telecoms) Regulatory Group (IRG) with 31 European members should have been registered as a private company under Belgian law, to do things which (she believes) should be left to the 27-member European Regulators Group (ERG) set up by the Commission. IRG, she says, is (just like Belgian football) ”alien to the Community approach”.

The Commissioner was speaking on the proposals for a new framework for European telecoms currently being discussed in the EP and Council. What she wants is an EECMA, a European Electronic Communications Market Authority, which would combine the functions of the ERG with those of the European Network and Information Security Agency, the body set up in 2004 to deal with cyber crime and cyber terrorism.

The Commissioner is fighting the good fight to extend the power of a European regulatory regime to the 27 member countries of the EU. The Commission believes that national regulators are too protective of national markets and inconsistent in applying EU policy.

For many people, though, this is a fight too far.

The proposals do appear to give untrammelled power to the Commission in managing telecoms policy, with little scope for parliamentary scrutiny and a significant transfer of power to Brussels. EECMA seems to have scant right of initiative and almost no scope to act.

Commissioner Reding does push hard for consumer rights – her battle for capping mobile phone charges was highly successful in its own terms, although the operators will always seek other ways to restore their margins – and has some support in the Parliament and Council, but the proposal to protect the position of the heads of national regulatory bodies from dismissal will be contentious in the Council and the bid to make freed-up spectrum more freely available at a European level will face fierce opposition.

I look forward to seeing just how far the Commission succeeds in what is in effect a major centralisation of power in the highly sensitive sector of telecommunications.

EU relations will test Russian intentions after Georgia invasion

Monday, September 8th, 2008

The OSCE seems to have serious doubts about Georgia’s role and there are even suggestions that the conflict was provoked by Vice President Cheney in order to boost McCain’s cause in the US elections.

Rash initiatives by the Georgian government in South Ossetia were almost certainly the trigger for the Russian action, but a trigger which Moscow had long been anticipating. The campaign was surely a far-reaching and thoroughly planned operation to damage the regime of President Mikhail Saakashvili, to assert Russia’s right to dictate political developments in its near abroad and to block NATO expansion in Ukraine and the Caucasus.

The tensions had been building for some time, apparently including a mounting level of cyber attacks on Georgian official websites similar to those previously experienced by Estonia, and reprisals against Russian sites by so-called “hacktivists” who specialise in DDOS – Distributed Denial of Service, where websites are sabotaged by swamping.

It is the scale of Russian actions in Georgia which may prove deeply counter-productive for Moscow. It seems likely to strengthen the US presence in the region and will raise the level of scepticism about Russia’s good faith in its international dealings. It will no doubt give quite a boost for those who wish to build new oil and gas pipelines which bypass Russia. Much will depend on how quickly the Russians withdraw from occupied Georgian territory and engage with OSCE and EU. There is no denying, though, that NATO expansion now looks much more challenging than it was before August 8. European members of the Alliance will have no enthusiasm for extending the guarantees of Article 5 to the Caucasus.

The European Union has acted quickly with its ceasefire proposals, some strong words and convening of a special summit in Brussels, where deep divisions of opinion were papered over and a united Franco-German position carried the day.

Europe is at pains to stress that the EU makes common cause with the Americans, but its rhetoric has been much more cautious. Sanctions have been rejected and dialogue sustained. If President Sarkozy and his colleagues can make real progress in their talks with the Russian leadership, even to the extent of launching a programme to resolve the “frozen conflicts” of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, then that would be a very considerable achievement

Russia needs the EU quite as much as the EU needs Russia, if only to counterbalance and moderate American policies in the region. While keeping the pinch of salt to hand (and remembering the black belt), it’s interesting to see what President Medvedev had to say to Euronews in defending the Russian position and expounding on the EU-Russia relationship.