Archive for the ‘Serbia’ Category

Serbia commits to its European destiny

Thursday, July 24th, 2008

It seems that the Dutch were particularly cautious in their approach, as Netherlands radio made clear. The Srebrenica massacre remains an especially awful memory for the Dutch (although it was actually an indictment of the whole UN operation). They stress that the arrest of Ratko Mladic and Goran Hadzic is the vital next step.

Notwithstanding these reservations, the developments in Serbia must be a great satisfaction for Commissioner Rehn and the Commission as a whole. A few weeks ago it looked as if the Socialists might throw in their lot with the nationalist Radicals and take Serbia down a more easterly path, but the formation of the coalition with President Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party was reminiscent of that period in the late1970s when a fledgling Portuguese democracy was under threat and rescued by the determination of Portugal’s social democrats to join the European mainstream.

It seems unlikely that there will be any turning back for Serbia, but for a view from closer to home see Antal Dániel’s blog.

There is no doubt that the successful easterly expansion of the European Union is the EU’s greatest achievement of recent years. Its influence continues to spread among candidates, associates and partners. Of course the introduction of the acquis freed up trade and stimulated economic growth, but its impact has been much more profound: it has introduced a system of ethics into business and even into personal relationships for countries where communist regimes had totally eliminated any such standards.

But old habits die hard. Joining the EU is not an automatic guarantee of change and I suppose that the latest European Commission reports on Rumania and Bulgaria are evidence of that. By the way, Italy is also in the spotlight for the corruption in Naples.

The Commission has been tougher in its reports than many people expected, especially in relation to Bulgaria, but given the pressure it is under for managing the EU budget it had little choice. What’s more, the Commission has an obligation to give maximum support to those local forces seeking fundamental reform. And that includes the vast majority of the people themselves.

Eurovision Song Contest: the centre of gravity shifts to the East

Wednesday, May 28th, 2008

Allemagne quartorze points, Royaume-Uni 14 points, la Russie 272 points, Ukraine 230 points, la Grèce 218 points. So it was a runaway victory for the Russian entry in the Eurovision Song Contest, held in Belgrade on May 24, and oblivion for most west European entries. The centre of gravity moves further east. See you in Moscow in 2009!

Some (western European) commentators see the modern contest as a great conspiracy of political block voting, with the Nordics, the Balkans, the East Europeans voting for their neighbours and so swinging the results.
 
But it seems the reality is much more complicated. It reflects the complex ethnic mix in so many European countries. The fact that Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine each gave the full 12 points to the Russian entry (as did Israel) reflects the size of the Russian ethnic population in these countries rather than any political block vote.
 
Likewise for the former Yugoslavia, with its intermixing of Serbian, Bosnian and Slovenian populations. Bearing in mind that you cannot vote for your own national entry, what more natural than to vote for your ethnic identity? Douze points for the cousins. By the same token, Turkey always does well from the German voters, mirroring its population of 2.6 million of Turkish extraction, although I see that this year Greece took Germany’s 12 points and Turkey only 10.
 
If you managed to miss three hours of the actual final, then you can treat yourself to a (brief) taster of any of the finalists – and maybe decide that the outcome was not so unfair after all. There’s an amalgam of western pop and eastern music which can work rather well – and is maybe part of a changing European identity – an eastwards shift in our cultural centre of gravity.

Serbia’s election: elation in Brussels turns to frustration

Tuesday, May 20th, 2008

Elation in Brussels at the unexpected success of Boris Tadic’s pro-European Democratic Party in Serbia’s general election has quickly turned to frustration as the Socialist Party, with 20 seats in the new parliament, decides whether to throw in its lot with the nationalist Radicals led by Vojislav Kostunica. Tadic’s party won the most seats, but not enough to form a government on its own. (Former ambassador to Belgrade, Charles Crawford, has forthright views on Mr Kostunica).

Both the Democratic Party and the Radicals are courting the Socialists. This was the party of Slobodan Milosevic, but it has greatly changed since his days, much as other communist parties of eastern and central Europe have done. Solana has indicated the EU’s acceptance of a socialist party role in a pro-Europe coalition and many members of the party see a commitment to a pro-EU government as a passport to full membership of Europe’s socialist mainstream.

I’ve no doubt there are those in Europe and the US who would dearly like to influence the outcome, but there’s probably little that can be done other than continuing to stress the benefits of integration within the European family.
 
The signing of the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) with Serbia at the end of April was an important step. But presumably a new Radical-Socialist government would renounce the agreement because a majority of EU countries has recognised Kosovo. They would certainly refuse to co-operate in finding and arresting Mladic and Karadzic which itself would block implementation of the SAA.
 
To judge by the exchange of vitriol in the aftermath of the elections, we are in for a period of bitter in-fighting and uncertainty . The prospects of a rapid move towards Serbian EU accession seem to have faded considerably unless a pro-Europe coalition can be formed after all. The outcome will be a watershed in the future of the Balkans
 
It’s not only Serbians who can’t agree. It seems that NATO and the European Union are still unable to talk to one another in Kosovo, although this is quite clearly a joint operation between the two bodies. According to a recent paper from the Centre for European Reform, the Turkish government will not allow a proper relationship to develop. CER have put forward its own ideas for bringing the two organisations together, with the Anglo-French relationship at the heart of its proposals.